Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-22 38.108675 41.388608 45.005110 49.325285 54.395729 60.222987 67.524757
2025-06-29 32.962883 37.141688 42.060776 48.397764 56.534161 66.922645 81.731097
2025-07-06 29.548123 34.008811 39.466557 46.834078 56.866802 70.656654 92.348773
2025-07-13 28.350968 33.307141 39.605681 48.523011 61.451537 80.763923 115.039615
2025-07-20 27.193435 32.472993 39.391517 49.584358 65.192520 90.373315 140.865410
2025-07-27 26.208894 31.737744 39.178351 50.536822 68.834472 100.667201 173.444355
2025-08-03 25.033280 30.629841 38.313304 50.366681 70.580367 108.028378 204.535885
2025-08-10 23.797537 29.341722 37.067285 49.440055 70.849256 112.587092 232.105654
2025-08-17 22.657331 28.110470 35.802207 48.334223 70.602154 115.999942 259.609679
2025-08-24 21.715118 27.101717 34.788621 47.523021 70.751565 120.318574 295.273503
2025-08-31 20.891787 26.216347 33.896774 46.819666 70.986694 124.918279 338.850887
2025-09-07 20.582841 26.052543 34.078887 47.928415 74.922397 140.028330 464.903846
2025-09-14 19.907483 25.343625 33.413471 47.580240 76.005987 148.600183 589.957953
2025-09-21 19.151445 24.482849 32.463776 46.652537 75.745687 153.403896 715.945363
2025-09-28 18.339229 23.502331 31.269828 45.183822 74.090041 153.397635 802.011345
2025-10-05 18.223308 23.559000 31.729957 46.772173 79.574862 179.688699 1689.193490
2025-10-12 17.992442 23.426168 31.868914 47.769161 83.919000 205.673167 5266.466863
2025-10-19 17.754413 23.268412 31.952456 48.663088 88.230442 235.981646 NaN
2025-10-26 17.344865 22.824400 31.527236 48.503457 89.770452 255.224147 NaN
2025-11-02 16.839332 22.210437 30.782130 47.633663 89.229896 263.360769 NaN
2025-11-09 16.333906 21.580150 29.982020 46.594739 88.069940 267.501422 NaN
2025-11-16 15.901293 21.051877 29.336049 45.831981 87.599951 276.034119 NaN
2025-11-23 15.507762 20.573665 28.757179 45.170191 87.335225 286.219643 NaN